The Future of Gaming - Part 1 of 2

Editor's Note: Greg Gibson is a long time contributor to TFH Gaming - writing reviews and humorous articles as Thomas Knollwood (a nom de plum). Mr. Gibson has an MBA in International Business (Honors), a Master's of Science in Electronic Commerce (Honors), and his Bachelor's degree is in Physics/Nuclear Engineering. He currently has 20 years experience with a Fortune-100 Company as senior Manager of Projects and Programs, is the CEO of his own successful consulting company, and is a National Executive Committee member & Regional President of a national Scientific society. His copyrighted article is presented in TFHGaming with all rights reserved . Mr. Gibson can be contacted at ggibson@SGSInternational.com.


Chapter 1: Futurism - An Introduction

"Futurist" is a term used to describe an individual who extrapolates human behavior, culture, society, mores, and technology to forecast/predict likely outcomes for future conditions or events.

In this series, we will examine the current state of gaming and extrapolate likely outcomes for the future of gaming. In differentiating ourselves between a "Futurist" and a "Fortuneteller", we will present the basis for our predictions, and attempt to address the evolutionary changes that will shape the future of gaming. Also, futurists do not attempt to extrapolate 50 years from now (science fiction writers do that) - rather they take the current situation and attempt to extrapolate 5 to 10 to 15 years ahead. Also, futurists do not assume quantum jumps in technology (antigravity warp-drive may occur someday, but at the moment there is no physics to support it, and therefore no basis for crediting it in the immediate future). So with that caveat, let us begin…

At its' most basic level, gaming is simply personalized, individual entertainment (PIE). It competes with movies, television, hobbies, books, and recreation and sports. The principle differentiation is that the individual gamer has active first-person involvement in a pre-established environment and can generate infinite outcomes. This contrasts starkly with books and movies where the participants are passive third-person observers in a singular story line, but has many commonalties with recreation and sports where the participants have active first person involvement and infinite outcomes.

The important fundamental elements of PIE are common: story line richness and originality, and the sophistication of the presentation.

Story line richness and originality are creative qualities that depend on the initiative and genius of the creator. Books, for example, have been around since Guttenberg's Bible - yet we constantly see new plots, twists, settings, environments, and a myriad of characters. If there were only a finite number of these, we would have run out of them years ago. So, one "given" is that creativity will continue to spontaneously occur, in unpredictable ways, such that new and innovative story lines and characters emerge.

The sophistication of the presentation relates to the "believability" of the presentation within a technical frame of reference. Movies are a good example where some cellulite, light, and audio, can recreate the sinking of the Titanic so realistically that the audience is immersed in the story and loses oneself in the presentation. Movies can also contain examples of anachronisms, plot/story inconsistencies, or physical impossibilities that are so discordant (all Japanese Monster movies where a guy in a Godzilla suit smashes little toy houses) that the audience is jarred out of involvement in the movie and are left thinking "boy, that's stupid!"

The higher the PIE fundamental elements, the more immersive the PIE will be and as a consequence - the more successful. However, these fundamental elements are not only critical, but impossible to predict. What can be said is, that the future will contain new and innovative stories, plots, and presentations.

Chapter 2: Operating Systems & Dedicated Platforms

I suppose you could say the whole thing started with PONG.

PONG was a game that took the single most important and enjoyed item in the home (TV) and changed it from a passive, third party observer to an active first person PIE. Indeed, PIE was created by the birth of PONG [sorry, but the card game Solitaire is pre-history in PIE). It was also differentiated by the ability to play against an artificial intelligence "the computer"… unlike board games such as Monopoly and Tactics II which are very difficult and boring to play solo.

However, the key element was that the game was actually defined, and limited by, the technology associated with the operating system - all the game could do was bounce a square around the screen.

As operating systems have evolved, fundamental element one has matured - the sophistication of the presentation. Now recognize that we are not talking about the differences between DOS and WINDOWS - those are simply the difference in text based I/O with the user versus graphical user interfaces. In this context, operating systems are at the chip level and how the processing structure allows for increased use of program and graphical memory. Indeed, in this context, the observations are equally valid between a PC, a MAC, or SEGA-box.

This brings us to the first "nugget" - at the atomic level, PIE is independent of platform. This explains why we see expansion of the gaming world on all platforms (PC and dedicated platforms such as X-BOX and PS) and why competition between platforms is so volatile - there is no compelling reason for the consumer to pick one platform over another. Therefore, current product branding efforts by these companies are largely wasted.

Immediately, the issue becomes "is it linear or is it exponential at some point"? In the linear case, with infinite computing power PIE would be infinite. In the exponential case, at some point increasing computer power yields diminishing increases in PIE. For example, audio speakers may be able to reproduce an increasing range of frequency - but I can't hear above a certain level (my dog might but I don't buy speakers for him to hear). So, unless a new technology is introduced (i.e., holo-decks), there will come a point where doubling computer speed and processing will not double the enjoyment from PIE.

Let us also recognize that we have already increased PIE by making it more "realistic" through platform improvement - from Black & White to Color, from grainy pictures to HDTV (1070x800), from flat paintings to 3D, from monaural to surround sound. [Note: Recall that there are only 5 senses; and taste, smell, and touch require a technological quantum leap before they are feasible]. Also, we have seen increasing sophistication in the presentation in improved story lines, improved character development, and the integration of video segments.

So what can we extrapolate… what does the future hold, as it relates to operating systems and platforms?

• Improvements in the operating system (WIN98, WINMe, WIN2000, WINXP) are largely irrelevant. Significant PIE system increases/improvements will come through the evolution of data processing chips, storage, memory, and price.
  


• PC operating systems from Microsoft, Linux, Apple, et al, will therefore see dramatically dropping revenues (probably beginning with WINXP and accelerating with subsequent releases) - as there is simply no reason for the consumer to always have the latest operating system. This will put negative pressure on research and development efforts within these companies.
  


• The next significant step will be the integration of voice control into the operating systems - operating systems will be voice controlled as well as graphical user interfaced. This will effect the game design (see Chapter 3).
  


• Dedicated platforms (X-Box versus PS2/3) will increasingly become a cutthroat market. Games developed for one platform will quickly have compatible versions available or equivalent versions created for each platform. This will result in predatory tactics by Microsoft and Sony, resulting in decreasing profits for the respective companies. SEGA's exit from the platform market to the game-developer market is therefore a natural and not unexpected consequence - remember ATARI.
  


• The natural consumer forces acting to improve PIE will result in a significant evolution over the next 5 to 10 years, and the emergence of a completely new entity - the "Digital Center". Two companies will likely vie for dominance of this new entity: Microsoft and SONY. If Microsoft fails, the company will become stagnant and significant shrinkage will occur; indeed, if they fail - Microsoft as we know it will be known in 20 years as the "Nova-Company" brilliant for a while and then burning out completely.
  


• Microsoft to date has shown a remarkable lack of foresight, future planning, and Executive Management direction, it is likely that they will be unable to be evolutionary as well as revolutionary. Their Company has evolved into something different, their management hasn't… if they do not quickly reinvent themselves, the results will likely be catastrophic for investors over the next 10 years.
  


• SONY has the infrastructure and a glimmer of management competence to give Microsoft a lethal blow. However, it remains to be seen whether SONY can harness the talents of their largely segregated Divisions to create a hybrid product - project management is the most glaring weakness at SONY.
  


• The "dark horse" in the future will be MITSUBISHI… want to know why - then read the conclusion of this commentary next week.

Commentary By: Greg Gibson ggibson@SGSInternational.com